Launching of the Type 076 "Hainan" LHD. Source - CCTV.

Taiwan: Window of Opportunity

As Western arsenals are emptied, the war in Ukraine is opening a window of opportunity for the People’s Republic of China to assert its claims over Taiwan militarily. Over the next few lines we explore the stockpile situation, the similarities and differences between the Taiwan and Ukraine scenarios for China and Russia respectively, and the likelihood of Beijing’s decision to use force to annex the island. While NATO allies continue to support Ukraine through economic aid packages and weapon systems delivery to repel the Russian invasion, China shows no interest in playing a significant role in the conflict. As the war progresses, many Western countries see their already anaemic munitions and surplus weapon systems stocks dwindling. NATO is beginning to address the issue, increasing defense budgets, buying ‘of the shelf’ from domestic defense contractors, and increasing or restarting munitions production. But […]

Anti-terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine (War Ukraine). Source - Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

Russian Winter: Myths and fables

In the last few days, various opinions have appeared in the general press arguing that the arrival of winter will mean a paralysis of operations, a catastrophe for the Ukrainian population or an enormous military advantage for Russia, not to mention its effects on the economy of the European Union. Again and again reference is made to the “Russian Winter” or “General Winter” going back to the Napoleonic Wars or World War II. Beyond the fact that this calculatedly defeatist message supports some of the Kremlin’s narratives, it is very interesting to contrast it with reality… When, in the winter of 1812, the remnants of Napoleon’s Grande Armée returned to their home bases in Central and Western Europe, little remained of the huge army that had crossed the Niemen in June. Some 380,000 men from the fifteen or so countries […]


Hezbollah as an intermediary between Iran and the Houthis

In his strategy of Gray zone, Iran uses third parties to implement its main lines of action. The terrorist group Hezbollah stands as one of the great proxies of the Iranian regime in its operations abroad. In the Gray Zone of the conflict in Yemen, Hezbollah has served as an Iranian intermediary to support the Houthi rebels militarily and politically, as well as through influence operations. However, Hezbollah develops hybrid strategies in favor of Iran in its geopolitical struggle to achieve regional hegemony over Saudi Arabia. The recent Houthi offensiveit’s about taez, south of Yemen, endangers the continuity of the truce, agreed between the opposing parties, which began with the opening of the Ramadan period of the current year 2022. In the absence of official confirmation, different information point out that this new air campaign by the Houthis could break the objectives of expanding the […]